Tuesday, May 23, 2006

If there's no $10 billion, there's no plan

A lot of the early analysis of the Blagojevich lottery sale/lease to fund education is an exercise in futility. If the sale or lease can't generate $10 billion up front, the rest of the plan collapses.

A friend of mine with a background in high stakes finance said he can't see any investor shelling out much more than $4 billion to $5 billion under the most generous of circumstances. And earlier we told you about the Michigan think tank analyst who said, based on his projections, a lottery the size of Illinois' would only generate about $2 billion.

It's up to the press and public to demand that Blagojevich release the detail of his projections so we can save ourselves several weeks of pointless speculation. My guess is that the estimate is as phony as some of his "cost savings" contracts exposed by the Illinois Auditor General.

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